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COFCO Futures supply is still loose palm strategy short-ca1834

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COFCO Futures: short supply is still loose palm strategy clients view the latest market of palm oil 1701 contract short strategy COFCO Futures Research Institute analysis, integrated multiple factors, palm oil 1701 contract objective market outlook is still down space, the specific reasons are as follows: first, the origin, the production cycle continues, the yield increased less than expected positive Malaysia reflected in the price of palm oil in September, the supply side is still loose. Figure 1: Malaysian palm oil production monthly seasonal                           Figure 2: Malaysia palm oil yield monthly cumulative year-on-year data source: COFCO Futures Institute this year production supply rhythm, affected by the El Nino La Nina cycle, origin in 15 in the 4 quarter of the 2 quarter -16 years experienced heavy losses, to determine the basic annual production of palm oil in 2016 Malaysia fact. The shrinkage of production supply has pushed up inventory levels, and palm oil pricing has risen. From the current price range, palm oil prices have been fully traded on the fundamentals. According to the seasonal characteristics of production, the Malay production level is still lower than the last year and the average level, but the seasonal pattern is still consistent with the production cycle. The recovery of later production is still going on. The pressure of late supply will continue to reflect as time goes on. The monthly output of Malaysian palm oil increased year by year, and the backward production schedule in the first half of last year is catching up. The recovery of the long-term palm oil supply is still objective and affected by the weather pattern, and in the short run, the probability of increasing production in September is still large. Two, demand recovery by inhibiting the spread, will usher in the late season seasonal Figure 3: Malay palm oil monthly export seasonal                             Figure 4: Chinese palm oil monthly import data source: COFCO Futures Institute of international soybean Brown spreads continued to remain low in the annual run producer of palm oil production background, in recent months, palm oil consumption spread was inhibited in the first half of the year. Inventory handling of demand countries in the 3 quarter after the beginning of the superposition, Holiday Stocking appeared, seasonal recovery of origin exports. Brown oil prices rebounded sharply, we believe that with the wave after stocking, the demand side is difficult to reproduce highlights. From the seasonal point of view, brown oil consumption in the 4 quarter ushered in the off-season, inventory pressure will appear again. The price will reflect the demand side pressure after the high pressure. From the perspective of China’s palm oil imports, the domestic tight supply situation in the early trading is expected to ease in September. From the customs data show that imports of palm oil 330 thousand tons in July, an increase of 40% qoq. Arrive from the expected, August estimated 400 thousand tons, 430 thousand tons in September. The low level of domestic inventory will be difficult to maintain in the later stage. Therefore, comprehensive analysis. 中粮期货:供给仍然宽松 棕榈策略做空 客户端 查看最新行情   棕榈油1701合约做空策略   中粮期货研究院分析认为,综合多重因素,棕油1701合约后市仍有客观下跌空间,具体原因如下:   一,首先,产地增产周期仍在延续,马来产量增幅不及预期的利好在价格中有所反应,9月棕油供给面仍然宽松。   图1:马来棕榈油月度产量季节性              图2:马来棕榈油月度产量累计同比   数据源:中粮期货研究院   今年产地供应节奏来看,受厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜周期影响,产地在15年4季度-16年2季度经历了较大产量损失,基本确定2016年马来棕油年度减产的事实。产量供应的收缩推升了库存水平的下降,棕榈油定价水平得到抬升。从目前的价格区间来看,棕榈油价格对上述基本面现状已充分交易。   从今年产量的季节性来看,马来产量水平尽管低于去年及均值水平,但季节性规律仍然符合增产周期。后期产量的恢复仍然延续中。后期供给的压力仍将随着时间后移有所体现。从马来棕榈油月度产量累计同比来看,前半年较去年落后的产量进度正在追赶,受天气模式影响,远期棕油供应的恢复仍然客观,且短期来看,9月增产概率仍然较大。   二、需求恢复受到价差抑制,后期将迎来季节性淡季   图3:马来棕榈油月度出口季节性               图4:中国棕榈油月度进口   数据源:中粮期货研究院   国际豆棕价差在棕榈油产地年度减产背景下持续维持低位运行,近月棕油消费在前半年受到价差明显抑制。需求国的库存搬运在3季度开启后叠加节日备货出现,产地出口出现季节性复苏。棕油价格在大幅反弹后,我们认为伴随这波备货过后,需求端难有亮点再现。从季节性看,4季度棕油消费迎来淡季,库存压力将再度出现。价格冲高后将体现需求端压力。   从中国棕榈油进口来看,国内前期交易供应紧张的局面有望在9月出现缓解。从海关数据显示7月进口棕榈油33万吨,环比增幅40%。从到岗预期来看,8月预估40万吨左右,9月43万吨左右。国内库存的低水平在后期将难以维系。   因此,综合分析而言,我们认为目前棕油价格在连续冲高后,已面临回调的压力。基本面并无持续的利好因素推动价格继续上行。我们综合分析认为棕榈油1701合约存在做空机会。策略如下:   合约:棕榈油期货1701合约   方向:做空   入场价位:5500-5550元 吨   获利了结价位:5300元 吨以下   止损价位:5650元 吨   手数:600张   中粮期货 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: